Last season the Wizards won 23 out of 82 games. That is 28% of their games. A terrible, awful, terrible, awful, terrible season. Converting that type of winning clip into the new 66 game season would give the Wizards around 18 wins for the season. That will be the starting point for my season prediction. I asked myself 5 questions to figure out my answer...
1. Do the Wizards have better new players this season?
Gone are the D-League players and random guys found off of the street like Alonzo Gee, Lester Hudson, Othyus Jeffers, and Mustafa Shakur. Last season when I saw those names on the back of jerseys I couldn't believe my eyes.
This season those guys have been replaced with 3 rookies. Jan Vesely who could be worse than all those guys, and Shelvin Mack & Chris Singleton who at least have shown that they can play in big time games in their college days.
2. Will the players who moved elsewhere this offseason effect the team?
Josh Howard & Al Thornton are gone, but they didn't really do much while they were here. Howard would have been injured anyway so I'm not saying losing him makes them worse off than last season. Thornton would have been OK but the Wiz need to develop some of these rookies.
3. Are the Wizards injured this season?
John Wall seems to be back to 100% after saying he was playing last season at around 80% (i can't remember the number he said on Comcast). At the start of the season the only injury concern is Jan Vesely which I believe effects the Wizards either 0% or positively.
4. Is John Wall better? The other key players?
NOT SURE, DOESN'T SEEM LIKE IT
The key to the Wizards success starts with John Wall. He was a great player last year, but he turned the ball over and took many poor shots. This season he will be surrounded by the same group of players so if he didn't get any better or improve, he will still be a great player but the team will have a similar record.
As for the 3 Stooges; Nick Young, JaVale McGee, & Andray Blatche, I don't think they are any better than they were last year despite claims from each of them and the coaching staff. Rashard Lewis may also be digressing each game as he gets older.
5. Are the Wizards good this season?
Despite having some interesting new players, less injuries, and a returning group of "key" players, the Wiz are in a similar situation as last year. The current players may work better together this year but that wouldn't account for maybe a few more wins. I don't know why, but I'm going to give the Wizards a higher winning percentage than last season, but not by much.
And in case you haven't seen them yet: Bullets Forever has a panel of people who picked the Wiz to win between 21 to 30 games. Someone wake me up in 5 years!